I have been exchanging some ideas with Luvdoinit. We are always talking about poker. A number of things he has said have set me thinking about the mindset of some of the people who play poker. He described how he has seen people in Las Vegas put their last few hundred dollars, or whatever, into slot machines on the morning before they leave. He said it is as though they have allocated a certain amount to lose, and just can’t bear to go home without losing that fun money. This is “slot machine mentality.” It comes from losers. It’s okay to be losers. We all are in our own way.

Putting another perspective on it, there was a documentary on British television about Las Vegas. One of the characters featured was an elderly doctor who went through millions sitting in a chair, just putting hundred dollar after hundred dollar into slot machines. She was asked about whether she was worried about losing so much and isn’t it bad to go through so much money like this. Her reply was that she enjoyed it, and she had plenty of money left anyway.

If you think about it, there are plenty of people in Vegas, Florida, or any affluent society, who have yachts and spend millions on expensive hobbies. I guess if you look at things like this, and treat poker as a hobby that you enjoy, then losing that money isn’t so important if you enjoy playing the game. It depends on how much happiness that money buys you. This is what I meant about us all being losers. We all spend money on hobbies. We don’t need to. We just do so because we enjoy them. It is about how much enjoyment we get from spending that money allocated for unimportant, fun things.

If you think of poker as a way of having fun, then fine, I have no problem with that. As Luvdoinit has suggested, if you do look at the game in this way, then allow yourself a certain amount of money to spend on the game per month, spend it, but no more than that. In this way you can protect yourself from losing too much and have fun at the same time.

But if you look at the game as a way to make money, you just cannot afford to have that attitude. I was sitting at the table with someone a couple of months ago who made me think about this. He threw in his last £30 on a JK all in, when there was very little in the pot. He was only going to get called by a much better hand and he knew it. He wanted to double through and was willing to take the worst of it to do so. It was a £25-£100 buy in with blinds of 50p/£1. He got called by someone with a better hand, but hit 3 kings on the 5 card flop and doubled through. “That’s the problem,” he said “I keep going up and down. When I’m down I keep making some back, but never enough to go in front.” I said “that’s okay to just break even. There’s nothing wrong with that at all. Then when you get a run of cards you end up in front.” But I knew he wasn’t going to listen. When he got down to a certain amount of chips he was going to throw them all in as underdog, and hope to double through again. It was almost inevitable he was going to lose his money. That’s what happened. But he didn’t seem too unhappy about this.

The same seemed to apply to nearly everyone at the table. They all HATED to leave with any chips. They were more than happy to just throw them all away with a 30 times the BB raise in the hopes of doubling through. I have been running really really badly lately. I drop down to the lowest level I can when this happens. I bought in for £50, which is not enough, but that is all I’m willing to risk when things are going badly. I played for over 2 hours and won one hand. I decided when the next table charge came around again, I was going to get up and leave with what I had left. That was £21.50 out of the £50. So I had lost £28.50. £10 of that was table charges), and as I got up to leave, an Asian standing behind me said in a surprised tone “you leaving?” “Yes that’s it,” I replied. I think he was stunned that I should play so long, lose so little and be satisfied with picking up what little I had left, and leave. He had been up and down for a while, had hit trip sixes at one point and built his stack to over £250. Yet he lost it all. He was more than willing to mix it up with borderline hands and not be bullied by massive raises. This either wins you a lot or loses you a lot. Generally I think it loses a lot. People lost several hundred in a few hours. This is quite normal. It isn’t as though the game is very fast and loose. It really isn’t that bad. It’s just people are willing to gamble a lot of money on borderline hands, which build big pots when the blinds are ony 50p/£1. They refuse to be “bullied” by massive raises and therefore go into pots with sub standard hands, and then can’t let that hand go beause the pot is so big. I have seen people even go through more than a thousand at that small level.

I practice what I preach. I play very safe. I consider what you don’t lose today you don’t have to win tomorrow. I understand why people have that mentality where they just HATE to leave chips on the table, but personally I hate it. I like to win. That’s the one reason I play. I HATE to lose. I don’t mind sitting through hours of total and utter boredom never playing a hand, because I know that when I do start to hit hands, I don’t have to win too much to be in profit. It is not a style that makes me a big winner or a champion. I am not. But it does make me a winner.

When you are running bad there is an almost supernatural aura that surrounds you. You usually get to the turn and someone shouts out the one card that your opponent needs to hit on the river, or they say “drawing dead” (incorrectly), and it’s guaranteed your opponent is going to hit that one card they need. You see the negative look in your opponent’s eye. The shake of the head. The “oh I’ve got no chance,” followed by total surprise and delight. After all they must be terribly unlucky to call a reraise with KT only to run into AK from the tightest player at the table. Then there’s only the river to come but you know it’s going to hit feeling. No doubt. The look and the relief. “Oh how lucky I am, it’s a miracle” sort of look. No it isn’t a miracle, it’s just the magic of poker, that means no matter how bad they get their chips in against someone running bad, they will hit that miracle card every time. I wish I could bestow such luck and cause such pleasure in real life. But oh no, it’s only at the poker table. I think I have won about 4 all ins out of the last 20. Most of those I was 70 per cent favourite. It doesn’t take long to even out, in fact I had a great run last year so I can’t complain too much. But when you go through even a mini phase of being unable to win any really big all ins at vital moments, it is soul destroying.

I had a reasonable start in my last tourney. Then I got all my chips in with AK and A K 3 and two diamonds on board. Naturally my opponent was drawing to a flush, naturally they had the odds to call, and naturally they hit. At least it hit straight away on 4th that time. The tourney before that it was all in with AQ against AT and the ten hit. So here is tonight’s sorry tale. I’m not saying I played particularly well. In fact, at the moment I am playing particularly badly. But if you continue to get your chips in good and your opponents continue to hit, it does mean you are running badly. In fact I would use this as a definition of running badly. No matter how good or bad you are, or how good or bad you are playing is irrelevant. If every time you get your chips in good, and you lose the majority of them, I think you can say you are running badly. So it isn’t really about good or bad play in my opinion. Running bad merely means you are getting outdrawn a lot on the hands where you are getting your chips in with the best of it. It’s that simple.

£50 freezout. 5000 starting chips. 30 minute blinds. 25/50 starting blinds. I am under the gun and raise for the first time this evening with AK. I raise to 200. I get reraised to 800 in middle position by someone who hasn’t put in a pre flop raise so far. Maybe he has me down as weak tight. Maybe he is correct. Maybe he is an idiot (in which case I’ll catch him later). Maybe he has AQ. I ponder a bit. Some would reraise here, some would just call. I fold. If you want to call this poor play and weak tight, go ahead. I do think AK is the most overrated hand in poker. I am not risking my tourney on a drawing hand at the start. If you have a bad feeling about any hand, follow your instincts. I did. Later on I didn’t, and that’s what killed me. Once around the table and I’m sitting on QQ in the BB. The same opponent raises to 275 from middle position. He probably has me down as weak tight. I raise him another 600 and he folds. I had the hand to do it. Would I have tried it with A3 or ATC?  Probably not. It’s why I’m not a top player.

I limp in with 8h Th in early position. There’s also a call from the same opponent and an oriental TAG player in late. The flop comes 7 9 J rainbow. I flopped the straight. There are 3 others in the pot so I bet 200. There’s a minimum reraise from the oriental. The BB folds. There’s a 5 on 4th. It’s the second club on board. I bet 1000. I get called in 2 places. There’s a 5 on the river. I did not want to see this. I decide to check. If someone has the house then I’m out anyway. I decide to check and call because I decide it’s unlikely anyone has trip 5’s. They may have a house, so it’s unlikely I’ll get called by any hand that is second to mine. It’s checked down and the other 2 muck.

Blinds are 50/100. My early opponent is down to a little over 2000 in chips. There are 3 calls and he moves all in. I know he has a hand of some sort. The table idiot decides to call with Kh 7h “well I thought I was against a small pair,” he said afterwards. They’d have to be fu**ing small to creep under that 7 I thought. Naturally the king hits. He was a nice enough young lad, but he did seem to be hitting every rubbish hand he was playing. Later on he also called another big all in from one of the tightest players at the table. The tight player had A9 and the idiot thought QK diamonds was a great hand to call this with. Well I’ve seen worse I suppose. The A9 was no match and another player was done.

The next hand was my undoing. I should have followed my instincts, although I am starting to think my instincts aren’t worth shit at the moment. I have about 8000 in chips. I limp in early with Ah 9s. Okay maybe I should be raising, but with those sort of hands in early, I like to limp as I can get away from them if there’s a raise. If you think it’s bad play, take it up with TJ Cloutier who also has said he likes to limp with hands such as AT or AJ early in tournaments, as he can just fold them without costing too much. There is one other caller and the BB to my right checks. Flop comes 9h Th Jh. (Omigod it’s an internet flop, you see about one of those a tournament.) The BB bets 200. I call. The other player calls. Js comes on 4th. The BB bets 400. I call and the other player folds. This is all very dangerous. There is the straight flush very clearly on board. How many outs do I really have? The Kh comes on the river. The BB puts in her last 2600. I agonise for minutes over this one. I keep saying “straight flush? I know you got the staright flush, you have to have the straight flush.” You see, there was no raise pre flop so I didn’t fear quads or a full house. It was the queen of hearts that I feared my opponent had. Since the king hit, she needed to have the queen of hearts for the straight flush. I went against my instincts and called. She turns over Jd Qh. She’d had trips by 4th and made the straight flush on the river. It’s a hand I probably should have got away from, but everyone else was saying I had to call as I had pot odds etc. I was unhappy and said “if you want to play the game to win, you have to be good enough to get away from those.” Either way I knew that was it for me. Here I did not get my chips in good. I was behind all the way and when I hit it was the second best hand. It was poor play.

I got down to about 2 or 3000, went all in once or twice, hit a pair on a couple of occasions, but never enough to keep me going for long. I finally had AK when I was down to just 2000 in chips. Got called by KJ. I knew what was going to happen. This was the first all in decision all night. I was resigned to my fate. Flop came A Q J 4 T. Yes, someone called “ten” before the river, so I knew it was hitting. It gave me the straight too, but quite honestly I just wanted to get out of there. The game just feels bad at times.

Had A9 in the BB. The table idiot raises double the BB in early. I considered reraising all in. Probably should have. Flop comes T 9 2. A few minutes earlier the guy had hit 2 pair playing T 2. I bet 500 from my 3000 in chips. I got reraised another 1500, so it’s basically all in. I felt I was behind. I folded. At least he was sporting enough to turn over a ten. When I’m in the BB with just 2000 left and 400 of it is in the BB the table idiot raises double the BB again. From a great player this could be a massive hand, but this guy has been doing this all night and then folding on the flop or hitting rubbish hands like he is the chosen one. Okay it’s all in with my KT. I am probably behind, but I’m dying out there. He turns over AQ. Well I can’t win one at the moment where I go in as 70 per cent favourite, there’s no way I’m winning this one.

Game over. Okay this is a big whinge. But I am posting it simply because if you play long enough you will go through these phases where there seem to be supernatural forces conspiring against you. It does turn. It takes a while, but it does turn. You go through this phase where not only do your big starting hands get mown down all in, but you also find your opponents hitting those miracle cards on 4th and river, and at the same time you do find yourself actually hitting a hand, only for it to be second best. You are so desperate to get anything going you go with it. I have seen far better players than myself face these almost supernatural forces. It’s a good enough reason to watch poker on tv too. The game doesn’t single anyone out. It’s just phases we all go through. The worst feeling at the moment, is that whenever I get my chips in good, rarely do I win the decision. That’s just poker. But it is also affecting my judgement badly, as it did tonight. I knew my opponent had the straight flush. Worse than that, I was chasing. If you chase knowing that if you hit it may not be the best hand then it is poor play. I failed to follow my instinct. On the river It was an odds call rather than a gut instinct call, but I played badly overall tonight.  

As a late addition, yes I know I should have bet the straight, even with two 5’s on board. There was no preflop raise, therefore it is highly unlikely that someone had the house. But if a player had a pair, and the 5’s meant they had two pair, or they originally had two pair and the 5’s meant their 2 pair was counterfeited, they may well have made a crying call on the river. Another example of how badly I am playing. I am so used to being sucked out on, that I am fearing those demons under the bed far too much. I was waiting to see what could possibly arrive on the river to stuff me. I feared a card that may make a better straight for one of my opponents. It didn’t arrive and I still didn’t value bet because I didn’t have the absolute nuts. I have to break out from that sort of mentality.

There’s a player who for all intents and purposes is completely mad. He does just what you are not supposed to do. He is the sort who will have most poker players pulling out their hair. He makes massive bets into a board of Ah Kh Th Ks then after his opponent folds, turns over 3d 7c with a smile on his face. Then he just calls with aces or kings in any position. Sometimes this means he gets into all sorts of trouble. I have seen someone in the BB read him for exactly kings or aces and be spot on. The BB had hit 2 pair but there was a flush and straight possibility on board. After questioning him, the BB decided his 2 pair was ahead, and he was right. Ali had slowplayed his aces just for kicks, but it cost him.

Sometimes slowplaying the aces works and he makes a ton of chips. Out of all the players I have played with, I don’t think I have seen anyone hit hands in quite the same way that Ali does. I have sat there and seen him hit about 7 prime hands in half an hour, and also hits trips with his medium pairs. Now I can’t think of anyone who has ever hit hands like this guy. The rest of us have sat there, dying in a desert of no hands, no luck, no chance, no hope, just total despair, while he hits hand after hand. He then bluffs with absolute rubbish. When someone finally calls him he turns over trips.

Sometimes we just laugh or scream, or a mixture of both. Some people hate him. They just can’t wait to see that smug smile wiped off his face. But you know, after playing with him for some time, I actually find him quite amusing and entertaining. I’ll say one thing in his favour. He never bad mouths anyone or taunts anyone. All he does to wind people up, is to turn over totally mad bluffs. This is his entertainment. Maybe he’s lonely and playing poker is his one way of interacting with people. He is middle aged and short, with a moustache. You wouldn’t give him a second glance walking down the street. But he is one of the strangest, wildest, aggressive players I have ever seen.

He is one of those adrenalin junkies, but unlike the kids who get their kicks from playing 12 tables at once and pushing all in on every hand without a second to draw breath, he gets his kicks in the old fashioned way. From playing all sorts of rubbish hands, and sucking out with them, or turning over aces played slow just to see the looks on people’s faces.

I was starting to think maybe he is a genius. Maybe Gus Hansen has something to worry about. This guy just kept hitting the river when I watched him play. I have never seen anyone hit the river quite like him. Then I saw a board of Qs 4s Ac Kh and his opponent bets half the pot from quite a short stack. Ali proudly turns over As Ts to everyone’s astonishment, including his opponent who was well behind. “But but but but….” Finally everyone picked their jaws up from the table and said “you’ve got the nut flush draw, an inside straight draw, top pair, a zillion potential outs, and a ton of chips and your opponent hardly has any.”

But whatever it was he was doing, whether you agree with it or not, there was a period of a few months where he just kept winning. He couldn’t lose. If he was part of any religion I wanted in. I’m an atheist, but I would try anything. I’m that desperate. I ended up quite liking him. I know I shouldn’t. I hated him at first but I just couldn’t help but be entertained. It is always fun when he is at the table. Mainly I think because of the reactions he gets from all the other players. Luvdoinit would probably wait for him outside. and whack him over the head with a baseball bat. I know several players who want to do just that.

I guess he was just on one of those runs. It was the sort that just makes you laugh and cry. When he is on one of those runs I am thinking, “but I haven’t seen ANY hands. NONE. NOTHING. Just give me one hand like Ali’s. Just give me ONE piece of luck like ALI. That’s all I need. ANYTHING. FFS. ANYTHING!” I have seen him in tourneys, amass huge stacks of chips and then throw them away as though they were nothing. But when they are all gone, he leaves without barely a flicker of emotion. He leaves as quietly as he arrives. Once he’s out no none notices him. Until next time.

I am always finding comments made by people that have absolutely nothing to do with poker, but can apply to the game. Here is one I heard in a documentary made about Darwinist, Richard Dawkins. He was questioning an expert on major companies and why they are successful, and relating it to Darwinism. The expert had this to say…

“The press loves to play up company CEO’s and entrepreneurs as these heroes, and in many ways they are, they work incredibly hard and they’ve made sacrifices, but the myth is that they were these great visionaries, these people who could predict the future and drive an organisation toward that future. The reality is economic systems just like biological systems are hugely complex, and being able to predict what’s going to happen in the long term is extraordinarily difficult or even impossible, and what some companies do is rather than try to outguess where the market is going they’ll create some notion of variety within their company and then let the market choose, let customers decide which products and services they’d like best.”
Dawkins : “So these legendary moguls…is it sort of luck that they’re the ones who’ve just, they just happened to get it right, and with hindsight you could say they got it right, but that’s all, it’s just hindsight?”
“Well not to take away from the talent that these individuals may have, but if you imagine a room full of people flipping coins, if the room’s big enough, one of them is gonna to get ten heads in a row, and then if you ask that person “what did you do?” they’ll say “well I’m an expert coin flipper I got my risks just right,” and we see the same thing in business.”

This relates perfectly to those who go on a run of winning just about every 50-50 and every 30 per cent decision. Yes you have to win some heads up battles. But being on a run where a player wins virtually every heads up, makes him look a lot better than he is. He may also make the mistake of thinking he is a lot better than he is. He may win a tournament or even more, but working out how much of this is due to great play, and how much is due to just plain old good luck is sometimes hard to analyse.

Here’s a comment that I find applies to my life - just about every day…

“Some days in the poker world, the biggest mistake you can make, is to get out of bed.” (Padraig Parkinson)

Here is one that is quite often misquoted as “football is more important than life or death.”

“Someone said - “football is more important than life and death to you,” and I said - “listen it’s more important than that.” (Bill Shankly, manager of Liverpool FC 1981)

I am not a subscriber to that line of thinking as far as something as unimportant as sport, or a game like poker is concerned. However, poker is a business and is either the sole source of income or a partial source of income to many people. It has to therefore be treated seriously. If you put a lot of study and hard work into the game, it will pay off in the long run.

I think poker will teach you a lot about life and life will teach you a lot about poker. The game does sometimes seem to exist in its own little cocoon, with reality seeming far away. But what has been said about the game being “a people game” is as true as ever. If you are a good reader of people, and can pick up on why people do things, and know a lot about life, this really does help you at the poker table. Poker can also teach you an awful lot about life, and the nature of luck.

The game does not exist in a vacuum. It is why I believe internet multi table players do not improve their game. I hear of these players doing exactly the same thing over and over, which may well be good enough to take the money but means their game does not evolve. How can it? If one of these players decides he is going to push if he has top pair on the flop, no matter what, it may take the money in the long run, at that low conveyor belt level, but it is almost the antithesis of what the game is about at the higher and better levels. If for instance, the flop comes 2 3 6, and the player holding K6 reraises all in to a huge reraise no matter what player he is against, because he always moves with top pair on the flop, it shows there is no learning process at all. If you are against a wild hyper aggressive player, it may be correct to do this. But what about the tightest player at the table?

These multi table players, play so many tables they don’t even know who they are playing against or how these people are playing. It isn’t a computer programme but it may just as well be. The computer doesn’t learn, it only knows what you feed into it. If the programe is well written, the computer does what you want it to, but it doesn’t learn. These players do not learn or interreact with other players in any way, or learn to adjust their play based on what their opponents are doing. It’s why you find a lot of kids playing multi table poker. They don’t know much about life and they don’t really care. They don’t know much about poker either, beyond the small confines of the computer screens and a video game version which is only a small part of what the game is really about. Can they earn money at it? Yes of course they can. I’m not saying they cannot win money. You can win money on the lottery or bingo. It needs more skill than that to play online poker, but their poker skill does not develop, just as the computer programme does not develop beyond what is put into it.

In poker as in life you make your own luck - to a certain extent. Anyone who suggests that you make all your own luck and that your fate is entirely in your own hands does not have much of a grasp on reality, or the nature of luck and what life is about. Sometimes those gurus who charge thousands to suckers just to tell them that all you need is a positive attitude are just conmen ripping off the suckers. In fact poker and odds can teach you something here. It is true with something as simple as a coin toss that after a few tosses you can have all heads or all tails. It is true that the more times you toss that coin the more the results will resemble a 50-50 split. But what you also must realise is the more times you toss that coin the more unlikely it is that the split will be exactly 50-50. If you toss the coin a million times the odds are astronomically high for the result being either an exact 50-50 split, or all heads or tails. Luck evens out over the long term to a certain extent but does not even out exactly.

Think of some Olympic sportsman or woman, who trains, gets the diet and everything else right, and is in perfect form leading up to the big event. Then some madman drives straight into their car as they wait at a pedestrian crossing and injures them badly. All Olympic hopes gone and that event only comes around every 4 years. They did nothing wrong. They were just unlucky. Or look at some young kid who is taken on a flight by their parents and the plane crashes. the kid did nothing wrong. He or she had no say over whether they take the flight or not. They were just unlucky. I am just saying something here that should be painfully apparent anyway. Bad luck happens. It isn’t fate, it’s just the way the odds play both in life and in poker. Some people are just more lucky than others.

All you can do is prepare yourself the best you can, this includes preparing yourself for the unexpected. Sometimes things happen that are entirely out of your control. You have to accept this too. Tell yourself you did the best you could, and that’s all anyone can do. Anything outside of this you have to let go, and accept it was not under your control. This gives you the best chance of all. The people who do the best in life as in poker are able to take these outside events, accept them, and not let themselves be affected. Those who do not let those unexpected bad bits of luck that are entirely are out of their control, affect them, will have the advantage over those that do.

I would say to anyone who wants to give the game a go, fine, go ahead. Study books and other players and try to give yourself the best chance of winning. But if you lose continually there comes a time when you may have to accept that you are not good enough to win at the game. Then you have to decide whether you want to play poker as fun, and lose, accepting it as an expense like any other hobby, or give it up. It is being able to decide how much luck you think has been involved in your results. Some people can run incredibly good and therefore think they are great players, while those who run bad think they are awful and blame themselves. Judging how good you are can be very hard, and expensive. Try and be as objective as possible. In poker and in life, the most talented will win eventually.

If some of you have never played in a live tournament, this is an example of what it is like. Here are a few hands from a recent one. I am really struggling to find anything playable at the moment. You just have to make do the best you can. I will try anything. Live poker is not internet poker. If you look at the following, and what I tried to do to win some chips, you will see why live is so different. Here are my best opportunities, and I have demonstrated what I tried to do to win.

Blinds are 50/100. I have about 6000 in chips. I have 82o in the BB. There are 2 callers. The flop comes 9 T J. I ever so slightly suck in some air and blow it out. I very very slightly shake my head and bet 300. I throw my chips in using that “oh I’ve got nothing but I may as well bet” sort of way, that signifies a massive hand. The first player looks at his cards, mucks them, and suggests what a massive hand I have. Thankfully this makes the other player think twice about calling and he folds. I do not show my “massive hand.” This is another thing you can do live if you have some experience. You just have to hope that your opponents have read up on tells and think they can read other players. If one of those players had any of that flop, of course I was in trouble. But it is the sort of flop that if players do not have any part of it, they do not want to get involved.

I had an AK in late position and a short stack player in early position had gone all in. I most definitely did not want another caller. The player to my right was fingering his chips. You cannot yell “DON’T CALL” although the temptation is there. But I started counting out the call amount from my stack. Thankfully the other player seemed to notice this and folded. Fingering your chips is sometimes a sign that you do not want a bet from your opponent, but this was a different situation. I just wanted to let the other player know I had a big hand.

Blinds are 100/200. I have a stack of about 6000. I’m in the big blind with T2o. There are two callers. The flop comes J J 2. I bet 400. Chances are I have the best hand here. There has been no pre flop raise so it’s unlikely someone has a pair. Thing is, I want to find out if I have the best hand. If I don’t, someone will soon let me know. If you bet your hand, you can choose the price for finding out the information. If you just check, first of all it shows weakness so it encourages others to bet. Secondly they are the ones who are setting the price for you to find out where you are. Not only that, you still don’t have any information until you reraise. By the time you find out, it can become very expensive. They both fold. Here is the advantage of being a tight player, that a lot of players don’t mention. If you play like this, when you bet, you are sending out a signal that you are strong. When you do this it gives you a much better guage for judging your opponents’ reactions.

Blinds are 50/100. I have a 5000 stack. 4 players limp in and I have 88 in the small blind. I raise it up another 350 and get one caller. A jack and two rags appear on the flop. I bet 800 into a pot of just over 1000. I get a call. Another rag comes of on 4th and I bet 1500. This shows I am pretty much committed to the pot and think I have the best hand. If I check it gives a free card. If my opponent bets I don’t know if he is doing so because I showed weakness or because he has a better hand. But I am looking at the guy and to me he doesn’t look like someone who thinks he has the best hand. This is one advantage that experience of playing live can give you. After looking at him I have a good idea I am ahead. He folds.

From the last 12 to reduce to 10 took over an hour’s play. Blinds went from 300/600 to 400/800 to 500/1000 to 600/1200. During this time I had a stack size between about 12,000 to 2000. I had AK 3 times and lost 2 to 8T hearts and AJ. I won one against 89 diamonds. I called an all in with 99 when we were playing hand for hand which would have sent us all to the finals table. The young lad was showing impatience and went all in under the gun. I had 99 in the BB. I could have folded but I decided I really couldn’t and still call myself a poker player. He turned over JQo and the jack hit on the second card of the flop. I went in once as underdog with AT against a short stack with AJ. I went all in with AJ and got called by T9. The 9 hit on the flop but I hit my jack on 4th. This still gave my opponent a ton of outs but I survived. It is really hard to get to finals tables when it runs like this. The second from last hand I played was when I had about 7000 in chips and called an all from the guy who had called my AJ all in with T9. He had gone all in with AJ and I don’t blame him for doing so. It was the right move but I had AK spades and really had to call. 4 blanks hit on the flop and the jack hit on the river. It left me with about 400 chips and no chance. Even my last hand all in of K5 was up against the chip leader with A5. It was just one of those nights.

To be successful in tournaments you really have to have a reasonable run of the cards. I lost 2 decisions where I was 70 per cent favourite. I lost the one where I was 30 per cent underdog and I lost the 50-50. If I had won just one of those it would have knocked out a player and meant we all go to the finals table. I won 2 of the hands where I was favourite, but they were when I was low on chips. It is really hard to win money with that sort of win rate so I was the last one out before the finals table. The really big ones though were the hands I lost, where I could virtually double through, knock out an opponent and make the finals table. I don’t think I made too many big mistakes. I consider the guy who called my all in raise with 9T to have made a mistake. He was the one that knocked me out eventually. Sometimes you can make mistakes and still win, but you cannot win in the long run if you play that sort of poker.

It was a really hard struggle all night. Out of the 12 or so hands I won in over 4 hours, there was not one single time where I was better than one pair. I won all my hands with one pair, a semi bluff, or an outright bluff.

This year marks the 10 year anniversary of the inception of online poker.  Back in 1998, planetpoker.com offered us the very first opportunity to wager real money against human opponents from all over the world.  Since then, the steamroller hasn’t lost a step.  Millions of people every day log on to their favorite site with the hopes of hitting it big.  Millions more are getting their “feet wet”  with the ultra-inexpensive games online sites offer.  Weather you are the fish or the shark, every single poker player has dreamed of finding themselves at the final table of a major poker event.  Dreams of millions of dollars, sponsorship opportunities, television appearances, and so on.  But in order to achieve this goal, at some point you are going to have to play some live poker.  You are going to have to show your face, feel the cards, feel the chips, be at the table, and thrust yourself into the world of brick and mortar poker.  Those who play both live and online won’t see a problem here and, for the most part, neither will the “test tube babies”.  The main problem will be when a “test tube baby” is identified at a live table.
These players stick out like a sore thumb to the trained eye.  Couple that with the fact that the online game is a much quicker pace and filled with inexperience and a “test tube baby” is going to find it very difficult to survive in the real world…  that is unless he/she makes the necessary adjustments.  Now the adjustments I am going to talk about here have nothing to do with actual game play, hold-em is hold-em,  but about the way an online player should “disguise” themselves as to not make it evident that he/she solely plays online.  Believe me, in a live game, players play “test tube babies” much different than they play their B&M counterparts.  So let me quickly give you a handful of suggestions as to what the online player should do to ease their transition into the B&M world.

1.  PRACTICE LOOKING AT YOUR CARDS.  You are going to have players very close to you, practice looking and covering up your cards as to not give any free peaks to your neighbors.  This may sound silly but if you have never played live before, you won’t think of it.

2.  PRACTICE WITH CHIPS.  This is the biggest giveaway in my opinion.  I can spot a test tube baby a mile away just by the way they fumble their chips.  Practice cutting and placing bets with your cheques (chips).  Fumble around too much and players are going to assume your inexperienced and play you accordingly.

3.  WAIT YOUR TURN.  You don’t have to worry about this online, just click the auto-fold and go to one of your other 50 tables.  Not here.  You are giving away valuable information by letting your intentions of folding be known.  Wait your turn before mucking your cards.

4.  WATCH THE OTHER PLAYERS.  It’s not too difficult to pick up on little silly things if you pay attention to the table, even when you aren’t in a hand.  Picking up tells is not as difficult as it’s claimed to be if you know what your looking at.  Remember, this isn’t online, you don’t have 50 other tables to worry about, all your winnings come from one table.  Maximize your potential.

5.  WATCH YOURSELF.  Remember, when you can see other players, other players can see you.  They are looking for the same things you are.  Just practice CONSISTANCY.  Always cut your chips the same, bet with the same speed, take the same amount of time on your hands, always look at the same place when in a hand (I personally cap my cards with a chip and stare at the chip until the betting round is over regardless of the circumstances).

6.  STAKES DON’T MATCH UP.  What did he say?  Let me explain what I mean.  When a new player starts online, he/she will usually start with the smallest stakes they can find until they gain some confidence.  Most sites have games starting at nickel/dime or less.  At your local casino, you rarely find stakes below $1/$2.  So in the live atmosphere, the newbies are all playing $1/$2.  Online, the $1/$2 games are very strong because there are likely 5 or 6 different games with stakes lower than this where the newbies will hang out.  In the casino, they are all at $1/$2.  So remember that the $1/$2 game live is going to have the same talent or skill level as a quarter/half game online.

Slade has his under the gun raise with Ah 8h reraised by Tyler holding Qh Qc. Slade reraises all in for Tyler’s last 108,000 and gets called. Hellmuth has been full of praise for Slade up until now but this time he is very critical. He does say that you just can’t keep reraising with hands like A8, which is true. But in Slade’s defence, I would say that he is very used to playing with Tyler, and I do believe he is playing the player rather than his hand. Either way, the ace hits and Tyler is out in 5th, picking up $25,000.

Blinds are now 5000/10,000. Slade raises to 30,000 with Qs Tc. Burgess is getting short stacked but only calls with Qc Ks. The flop comes 7c Qh Ts giving Slade 2 pair. It goes check check. On 4th there is the bingo card of Kc giving Burgess an even bigger 2 pair. Slade bets 10,000 and Burgess moves all in for his remaining 65,000 and takes down a pot of 200,000, as the Jh on the river is harmless.

Blinds are at 7000/15,000. Annette Obrestad raises with Ac 8c and the 30,000 gets called by Frazer holding 4s 4d. The flop comes Ad 3h Ts. Obrestad checks. Frazer bets 30,000 into the 90,000 pot. Obrestad calls, but she doesn’t look that convinced she is ahead. 9c arrives on 4th. Once again Obrestad checks and once again Frazer bets. This time the bet is 60,000 into a 150,000 pot. Obrestad takes a long time but finally makes the call. There’s a 5c on the river. Obrestad checks and again Frazer fires another bullet. It’s 100,000 into a 270,000 pot. There’s no way Obrestad is going to fold here. She calls and takes down a pot of 470,000. Frazer has bluffed his way from chip leader to virtually out of the tournament.

Chip stacks are now
1. Nick Slade - 562,000
2. Annette Obrestad - 431,000
3. Craig Burgess - 206,000
4. Ian Frazer - 201,000

Shortly after this comes the hand, which is for me, the hand of the tournament. It demonstrates the difference between a live player and an internet player. You be the judge. Blinds are 10,000/20,000.
Slade with Ad Ks raises to 50,000. Obrestad with Jh 7s moves all in. (No I’m not kidding. It’s no typo error) Slade calls in an instant and they play a pot for 972,000 of the 1,400,000 on the table. Phil Hellmuth and Jesse May are virtually falling off their chairs.
Hellmuth : “This is how she has gotten herself into trouble. WHY!!?? WHY!!?? She has 500,000 in chips. She is reading everybody well. She’s playing perfectly. Why shove in with a jack seven offsuit? I told you at the beginning she is gonna play a lot of big hands where she has the worst of it…she just absolutely blew up. Now she could have made it 180,000 and gotten the same information and still had 300 left when he moved in.”

To be fair to Hellmuth, the very week before he had been saying exactly this. He said that he hoped she would mature but the way she is playing now she will play a great amount of very big pots where she is underdog, and that is not a strategy for long term success. He added once again this week that she may well mature.

The results? Oh yeah, it’s not an internet tournament so the AK holds up. The king hits on the flop so there is very little chance of any sort of suckout. By 4th it is all over. I can tell you I was delighted because I wanted to see a truly worthy champion. Not someone who just throws it all in playing bingo. I wanted so much to see a worthy champion and it would have been a total injustice to see a clown play win. Donkerstad is out in 4th winning $30,000.

She said afterwards “The thing is that there were two short stacks at the table, and him and I we had a lot of chips the both of us, so he’s not going to be calling me with very many hands because he wants the other two players to bust first. So I figured he would be laying down a lot of hands. I just got unlucky that he had ace king.”

Slade has Ts 9c and moves all in. Frazer is short stacked and calls with Kh Qd. The pot is still 372,000 but a 9 hits leaving Frazer in 3rd with $50,000.

Slade now has 1,304,000 in chips and is heads up against Burgess with 96,000. Burgess doubles through once but on the next hand Burgess has queens against Slade’s Kc 3s. The pot is 384,000. A king hits and it’s all over. Slade takes home $200,000 for 1st and Burgess with $100,000 for 2nd.

Interview afterwards - Jesse May : “Obviously the hands you played against Annette were incredible. That hand, the one with the ace king, did you feel like you were going to get her to put her money in sooner or later?”
Slade : “Yeah I mean cos I was quite lively earlier on and I know Annette likes to dominate the table. She started, I thought, targetting my raises, which was you know, was exactly what I wanted her to do because sooner or later I was going to do it with a genuine hand, and then as it turned out she made the move and you know I insta called it, because I thought I was a mile ahead. As it turned out I was, and it held up.”
Jesse May : “Nick what are you gong to do with the money?”
Slade : “Umm…pay some debts off. Some of the lads have been very good over the last 12 months cos it’s been a tough 12 months…you know this has come at an opportune moment you know I would like to thank all of the support, you know my wife has been seriously ill, and you know I come back and I won at Luton last week, and I’ve won this and it’s pretty much of a fairy tale to be honest with you.”

One for the good guys.

The finals of the recent European Open tourney on British tv was one of the most exciting and eventful finals tables I have seen. The event was run over a series of 12, 6 seater stt’s, with the winner of each going to the semi finals. The runner ups each went into a turbo tourney, with the 2 winners making up the final 2 places. The 7 players at each of the 2 semi finals then played down to 3 survivors. The players then carried their chip stacks at this point through to the finals table. The staggered chip count meant it was more like the final stages of a genuine mtt. The whole tournament provided an entertaining mix of big names, seasoned pros, internet kids, and enthusiastic amateurs.

The finalists and starting chip count were
1. Ian Frazer - 469,000
2. Josh Tyler - 351,000
3. Annette Obrestad - 235,000
4. Nick Slade - 124,000
5. Juha Helppi - 114,000
6. Craig Burgess - 107,000

In the commentary box were Jesse May and Phil Hellmuth. Starting blinds were 2000/4000.

Nick Slade calls with As 8d. Annette Obrestad raises to 32,000 with Qs 8c. Slade reraises all in and Obrestad immediately tosses away her hand.

Annette Obrestad raises on the button with 9h 9s. Juha Helppi has Ah Kh and clearly thinks he is well ahead. He reraises all in and Obrestad calls immediately. Helppi misses and is surprisingly the first one out. Obrestad takes a pot of 224,000.

Nick Slade with Qc Qd raises to 16,000 and gets called by both Ian Frazer with Ad Tc, and Josh Tyler with Kd 7d. The flop comes 8d Qs Ks. Slade bets 32,000.
Phil Hellmuth : “Now here is the test that I have been waiting to see. Tyler is sitting there with the king, he has top pair, and let’s see if he is able to get out of this hand cheap, because he should be able to…first of all I don’t like his call of a raise with K7 of diamonds, so that’s the first mistake he made.”
Tyler then reraises 75,000 more.
Hellmuth : “He’s overplayed so many hands…well this is the thing, now I know…I mean he’s willing to risk 100,000, look at this.”
Slade moves all in for another 76,000 and Tyler calls looking absolutely crestfallen. He knows he’s beat.
Hellmuth : “I mean Tyler…oh okay, look this is what I predicted in the first heat when he almost went broke with J9, is that he would go out early…well he didn’t want any tough situations. The first tough situation he ran into he virtually donked off all his chips.”
Jesse May : “What was the proper way to play the hand - fold before the flop?”
Hellmuth : Well of course. I mean fold before the flop. I mean he busted himself on this hand.”
Jesse May : He’s gonna kick himself there isn’t he?”
Hellmuth : “Well he knows he donked off the money.”

4 players limp in. Nick Slade with 7d Td. Obrestad with 8d 6d. Frazer with Jh Kc. Tyler with As 6h.
The flop comes 3s Th 7c. Slade checks. Obrestad bets 8000 and Slade just calls with 2 pair and the others fold.
Hellmuth : “She fell for it, oh my god…they’re using her aggression against her just beautifully.
Obrestad bets another 23,000 when the Qd appears on 4th.
Hellmuth : “Oh he’s played her beautifully.”
4h comes on the river. Slade bets 30,000.
Hellmuth : “Oh he’s played her like a fiddle on this hand.”
Obrestad reraises to 80,000 and Slade calls.
Hellmuth : “Now that’s what happens when you play super aggressively and everyone knows you’re playing super aggressively. He checked to let her bluff off her money - she did. He checked, then he put a little floater bet out there where she’s gonna have to raise it if she believes he’s weak, and then he picked off that 50,000. That’s what you do against a super aggressive player, you use their aggression against them. You limp in with big hands, you let them bluff bluff bluff bluff, and then you put a little floater bet out there.

Obrestad with Ac Jc raises and gets called by Slade with Kd Ts. The flop comes 5h Kh Tc. Slade has hit 2 pair. It goes check check. The As arrives on 4th meaning Obrestad has hit her ace. Slade bets 10,000 into a 27,000 pot. Obrestad just calls. 8c is the river card and it looks like Obrestad could be gone. Slade bets 30,000 but Obrestad folds.
Hellmuth : “Let’s give Annette some credit there. I mean she played that hand beautifully.”

Blinds are up to 3000/6000
Hellmuth is continuing his theme about aggressive players. Hellmuth : “Now that’s what I like to do… there’s so many new aggressive internet players who show up to the World Series every year and I just love to keep checking to them, and it’s amazing they keep firing and firing.
Jesse May : “The check and call has gone from being the most passive strategy to one of the most effective.”
Hellmuth : “I have been using it only because every one else is so crazy.”

Obrestad makes a small raise with Ad 7d and Slade calls in the blind with 7s 6c. Flop is 5s 2c 5c. It goes check check. Jc on 4th. Slade bets 14,000. This is the first time he has tried to bluff her. She calls. 3d comes on the river and Slade bets once again with nothing. His 50,000 is virtually all her remaining chips.
Hellmuth : “If she makes the call I’ll be impressed.”
Obrestad calls with ace high and takes down a pot of 161,000.
Hellmuth : “Look at this girl, because she hasn’t shown me that much in the days that I’ve watched her…I mean it was just a beautiful call and it was a beautiful bet on his part because he smelled that she had ace high, and it was just a beautifully played hand by both of them.”

I’m talking live poker here incidentally. If you play only internet then fine, but I am talking live poker, because that’s what I know about. If you find enough idiots to go in as huge underdog against you, then you are going to be in pretty good shape. It doesn’t matter about your mindset, your lucky charms, or whether you are feeling positive or negative. Once the cards are shuffled, what is going to come out on the flop is already set. Nothing is going to change that. May as well pray to some tooth fairy, or whatever god you believe in. That isn’t going to change things either. If there is a god, I somehow think they are going to be too busy to come down and change the cards personally for you. You know, even if I believed in something like that, I wouldn’t want that happening anyway. Just as Samantha’s husband in Bewitched would realise, it sort of defeats the object of the game. The object of the game is to earn money by outplaying and out thinking your opponent. If you do this in the long run it is inevitable that you will win. Satisfaction comes from that. Confidence comes from that, real confidence, not some crap bravado of a kid who thinks all you have to do is bet bet bet continually with the dog hand, and think they’re going to win because this makes them great players.

You will find confidence because you go in continually with the best hand, this then leads to a positive mindset, which in turn means you will play better poker. It all stems from playing good or great poker. If you continually go in with the best hand, you are outplaying your opponent. I’m not someone who believes in calling a big raise with 2nd rate cards (8-7 suited and their like), because you think you can outplay your opponent. If you are calling a big raise with these sort of hands, he has already outplayed you.

If you’re the sort of person who likes to jump up and down, whoop and holler, scream your head off while running around the room, every time you hit your hand against the odds, I would ask “why?” You just got outplayed. You just went in with all your chips as massive underdog and sucked out. These are the actions of a losing player, not something to shout about. Why be happy? In the long run you will lose a lot of money. If you’re good enough to be playing the game for a long time, and only go in as underdog occasionally, then don’t celebrate too much when you suck out. In the time you are playing you will put some hideously bad beats on people, and also have them put on you. Anything you do to someone will eventually be done to you. Anything truly awful and outrageous that happens in your favour, will at some time in the future, work against you in exactly the same way. It’s the Instant Karma of poker. This is another thing that is inevitable.

Yes, some pros do dance around the room, cheer, and throw their arms up in the air when they put a suckout on someone. It may be in a big tourney, and the moment may get to them. Generally the class ones don’t act like this, but some do. If you are a very good player and choose to do this because it is part of your personality, then no one can stop you. I have given my reasons why I hate it, but some can’t stop themselves. Some like to rub the other players’ noses in it. If this is your style, then you better be prepared to take it as well, because take it you will. I have always believed if you are a class player, then act like one. If you’re a second rate player like me, then at least you can act like a class player, even if you don’t play like one. If you try to play the game to the best of your ability, and act accordingly, I do think this helps you to improve. I prefer this to acting like a jerk and playing for the suckout.

But if you do like to play the game as bingo, and like to throw all your chips in as undedog, in the hope of getting lucky because it’s your only chance, then I would understand why you would run around the room, cheering like a moron. You have played the game like a lottery, and have got lucky. So here I would understand that sort of behaviour. Once again it’s about your mindset. For me it’s the difference between players who like to play class poker, winning through better play, and those who just want to get lucky on a long shot. I’m not saying don’t enjoy your winning hands and winning situations. It’s just a case of endeavouring to play enough class poker, so that it is inevitable you will win in the long run.

A couple of years ago Kenna James was commentating on one of those tv tournaments. I thoroughly enjoyed his comments. He is a player who has been through it all, and come out the other side. He has experience, respect for the game, and respect for the other players. I remember one of his comments, which I am going to have to paraphrase here, because I cannot remember the comment exactly. A player had just won a big pot with KTo. “When you start playing poker you can make tons of money with KT. Then you start to realise how bad a hand it is. After this you can never make money with it ever again!” That is pretty close to what he said, and I think we know what he means here.

I love that comment. It comes from a player who knows what he’s talking about. Young and inexperienced players can be fearless, to the point of stupidity. It’s okay being fearless, as long as you have a respect for the game and what your opponent can have, relative to your own hand. I think a basic knowledge of the odds will always go towards setting the foundation of a winning game. I think it is so important to be aware of the possibilites of what your opponent can have, and a knowledge of the odds will enable you to make a better judgement on the possibilities. You don’t have to know the odds exactly, just the basics will do. If you don’t know some of these you may be surprised.

For instance, the reason I hate a rag ace is because of the high likelihood of someone else at the table having an ace too. Some people can make loads of money with those rag aces. They then lose it all, and more besides on those very same rag aces. It’s an horrendous hand, especially in a slow blind tourney. If you can get in cheap or raise with it first in then okay. If you raise with A6 you may even (and should) fold out hands like A9 or A8. If you’re at a full table there is a better than 60 per cent chance that someone else also has an ace. If there are 8 players at the table, the chance that another player has an ace is 63.57%. If there are 9 players the chance is 69.47%. If there are 10 players the chance is 74.69%. Incidentally, the chances of someone having that ace if you don’t have one do not change as much as maybe you would think. If you don’t have an ace the chances of someone having an ace at an 8 handed table is 74.42%. At a 9 handed table it is 79.86%. At a 10 handed table it is 84.39%. I have always hated rag aces. These figures show you why.

There are some interesting comparisons too. I don’t know about you, but it always seems that if I start with 2 suited cards I hit that flush draw an awful lot more than I hit trips on the flop, starting with a pair. But no - the chances are 15-2 of either of these events happening. If you really want to split hairs the exact chances for the flush draw hitting on the flop are 7.48-1, whereas the chances of hitting a set are 7.51-1. But for all intents and purposes they are the same.

Suited connectors and connectors are some of those problem hands that can cause you all sorts of trouble. You are much more likely to hit part of this hand than full on. If you are against a pair and insist on playing your hand out when you partially hit, there is a very good chance you will go broke. If you think you have seen players hit trips, 2 pair and the flush straight away on the flop, you have probably been watching too much tv poker. They edit down hours of play to get to those big moments. Chances of you hitting 2 pair on the flop starting with 2 different cards are 2%, or 49-1. Hitting the flush straight away on the first 3 cards of the flop is 118-1. Your chances of hitting one pair on the flop is 2-1, but you then only have a 20 per cent chance of hitting trips, or 2 pair on 4th and 5th. A good way to work out the percentage of improving after the flop is to work out your outs, then multiply them by the number of streets to come, then multiply by 2 for the percentage. (2.2 is probably more accurate but 2 is close enough.) So more simply multiply by 2 with one street to come and by 4 with 2 streets to come. This works for a number of outs like 5, but not quite as well for larger numbers of outs. With 5 outs it would work out as 5 times 2 times 2 for a percentage of 20. This is very close to the actual percentage of 20.3. Sometimes you hit your two pair and this makes the straight for someone else. Or you hit trips and someone else makes the full house. Some of these hands can not only have implied odds, they can have inverse implied odds.

I suppose you think you have seen runner runner tons of times. You probably have, but the real chances of this are far more remote than you think. If you start with 2 suited cards and end up with one of your suit on the flop, the chances of hitting runner runner are about 23-1. You work out the chances of one event after another by multiplying the fractions together. For instance, there are 2 cards in your hand, and 3 on the flop. That leaves 47 unknown cards. There are 10 cards left to hit for your flush. Hitting the first flush card on 4th is 10 out of 47. Hitting the flush on the river is therefore 9 out of 46. You multiply these together and it works out at 90 over 2162. This reduces to almost exactly 1 over 24. That is 23-1 for the runner runner flush. If you are all in and see your opponent’s cards and he doesn’t have one of your flush cards, this changes the odds to 90 over 1980. This works out at 1 over 22, or 21-1.

To hit runner runner in the sense of 2 perfect cards is even more unlikely but by no means impossible. I saw it happen on tv and the commentator said that the chances of this happening must be a million to one! They aren’t. I had AQ and raised from early position. I was reraised by a fast loose and aggressive older player. I reraised all in and was called. He turned over kings. The flop came K 6 6. I was getting ready for the rebuy, as this was a rebuy tourney, but then the dealer turned over 6 followed by another 6. This meant I won the hand as I had 4 sixes with an ace kicker to stuff his full house on the flop. All the money went in pre flop so it maybe wasn’t a genuine runner runner. But post flop after my opponent hits kings full, the odds of me hitting 6 followed by another 6, are 2 over 45, times 1 over 44. That works out at 2 over 1980 or 1 over 990. That means the odds are 989-1.

If you then look at the odds of runner runner as 21-1 or 23-1, and compare this to the odds of hitting your flush draw, starting with 2 suited cards you find those odds of 16-1 are not that far away from the runner runner possibility. Maybe I am being very negative, and playing unfairly with numbers here, but I just use this comparison to remember how unlikely it is to make your flush starting with 2 suited cards.

Sometimes you can come up with some scary stuff, or at least something that makes you realise how precarious tournament life is, if your chips go into the centre too often.  For instance An ace rag against a big ace is roughly a 30 per cent underdog, or 5-2. The same applies to a rag ace against a pair, which leaves your ace as the sole overcard. Going all in twice as a 30 per cent underdog means you are highly unlikely to survive. Your chances are 2 over 7, times 2 over 7, which works out at 4 over 49. This is a fraction more than 1 over 12, or 11-1 against. So that’s about a 92 per cent chance you’re toast. Even going in as 70 per cent favourite twice in a row means you are only 50 per cent to survive. This works out at 5 over 7 times 5 over 7, which is 25 over 49. Virtually 50-50.

You don’t have to know all these exactly. I certainly don’t, nor do the top pros. But you have to have some idea of the math, because without this you do not have all the information you need in order to make correct decisions at the table.