Slade has his under the gun raise with Ah 8h reraised by Tyler holding Qh Qc. Slade reraises all in for Tyler’s last 108,000 and gets called. Hellmuth has been full of praise for Slade up until now but this time he is very critical. He does say that you just can’t keep reraising with hands like A8, which is true. But in Slade’s defence, I would say that he is very used to playing with Tyler, and I do believe he is playing the player rather than his hand. Either way, the ace hits and Tyler is out in 5th, picking up $25,000.

Blinds are now 5000/10,000. Slade raises to 30,000 with Qs Tc. Burgess is getting short stacked but only calls with Qc Ks. The flop comes 7c Qh Ts giving Slade 2 pair. It goes check check. On 4th there is the bingo card of Kc giving Burgess an even bigger 2 pair. Slade bets 10,000 and Burgess moves all in for his remaining 65,000 and takes down a pot of 200,000, as the Jh on the river is harmless.

Blinds are at 7000/15,000. Annette Obrestad raises with Ac 8c and the 30,000 gets called by Frazer holding 4s 4d. The flop comes Ad 3h Ts. Obrestad checks. Frazer bets 30,000 into the 90,000 pot. Obrestad calls, but she doesn’t look that convinced she is ahead. 9c arrives on 4th. Once again Obrestad checks and once again Frazer bets. This time the bet is 60,000 into a 150,000 pot. Obrestad takes a long time but finally makes the call. There’s a 5c on the river. Obrestad checks and again Frazer fires another bullet. It’s 100,000 into a 270,000 pot. There’s no way Obrestad is going to fold here. She calls and takes down a pot of 470,000. Frazer has bluffed his way from chip leader to virtually out of the tournament.

Chip stacks are now
1. Nick Slade – 562,000
2. Annette Obrestad – 431,000
3. Craig Burgess – 206,000
4. Ian Frazer – 201,000

Shortly after this comes the hand, which is for me, the hand of the tournament. It demonstrates the difference between a live player and an internet player. You be the judge. Blinds are 10,000/20,000.
Slade with Ad Ks raises to 50,000. Obrestad with Jh 7s moves all in. (No I’m not kidding. It’s no typo error) Slade calls in an instant and they play a pot for 972,000 of the 1,400,000 on the table. Phil Hellmuth and Jesse May are virtually falling off their chairs.
Hellmuth : “This is how she has gotten herself into trouble. WHY!!?? WHY!!?? She has 500,000 in chips. She is reading everybody well. She’s playing perfectly. Why shove in with a jack seven offsuit? I told you at the beginning she is gonna play a lot of big hands where she has the worst of it…she just absolutely blew up. Now she could have made it 180,000 and gotten the same information and still had 300 left when he moved in.”

To be fair to Hellmuth, the very week before he had been saying exactly this. He said that he hoped she would mature but the way she is playing now she will play a great amount of very big pots where she is underdog, and that is not a strategy for long term success. He added once again this week that she may well mature.

The results? Oh yeah, it’s not an internet tournament so the AK holds up. The king hits on the flop so there is very little chance of any sort of suckout. By 4th it is all over. I can tell you I was delighted because I wanted to see a truly worthy champion. Not someone who just throws it all in playing bingo. I wanted so much to see a worthy champion and it would have been a total injustice to see a clown play win. Donkerstad is out in 4th winning $30,000.

She said afterwards “The thing is that there were two short stacks at the table, and him and I we had a lot of chips the both of us, so he’s not going to be calling me with very many hands because he wants the other two players to bust first. So I figured he would be laying down a lot of hands. I just got unlucky that he had ace king.”

Slade has Ts 9c and moves all in. Frazer is short stacked and calls with Kh Qd. The pot is still 372,000 but a 9 hits leaving Frazer in 3rd with $50,000.

Slade now has 1,304,000 in chips and is heads up against Burgess with 96,000. Burgess doubles through once but on the next hand Burgess has queens against Slade’s Kc 3s. The pot is 384,000. A king hits and it’s all over. Slade takes home $200,000 for 1st and Burgess with $100,000 for 2nd.

Interview afterwards – Jesse May : “Obviously the hands you played against Annette were incredible. That hand, the one with the ace king, did you feel like you were going to get her to put her money in sooner or later?”
Slade : “Yeah I mean cos I was quite lively earlier on and I know Annette likes to dominate the table. She started, I thought, targetting my raises, which was you know, was exactly what I wanted her to do because sooner or later I was going to do it with a genuine hand, and then as it turned out she made the move and you know I insta called it, because I thought I was a mile ahead. As it turned out I was, and it held up.”
Jesse May : “Nick what are you gong to do with the money?”
Slade : “Umm…pay some debts off. Some of the lads have been very good over the last 12 months cos it’s been a tough 12 months…you know this has come at an opportune moment you know I would like to thank all of the support, you know my wife has been seriously ill, and you know I come back and I won at Luton last week, and I’ve won this and it’s pretty much of a fairy tale to be honest with you.”

One for the good guys.

The finals of the recent European Open tourney on British tv was one of the most exciting and eventful finals tables I have seen. The event was run over a series of 12, 6 seater stt’s, with the winner of each going to the semi finals. The runner ups each went into a turbo tourney, with the 2 winners making up the final 2 places. The 7 players at each of the 2 semi finals then played down to 3 survivors. The players then carried their chip stacks at this point through to the finals table. The staggered chip count meant it was more like the final stages of a genuine mtt. The whole tournament provided an entertaining mix of big names, seasoned pros, internet kids, and enthusiastic amateurs.

The finalists and starting chip count were
1. Ian Frazer – 469,000
2. Josh Tyler – 351,000
3. Annette Obrestad – 235,000
4. Nick Slade – 124,000
5. Juha Helppi – 114,000
6. Craig Burgess – 107,000

In the commentary box were Jesse May and Phil Hellmuth. Starting blinds were 2000/4000.

Nick Slade calls with As 8d. Annette Obrestad raises to 32,000 with Qs 8c. Slade reraises all in and Obrestad immediately tosses away her hand.

Annette Obrestad raises on the button with 9h 9s. Juha Helppi has Ah Kh and clearly thinks he is well ahead. He reraises all in and Obrestad calls immediately. Helppi misses and is surprisingly the first one out. Obrestad takes a pot of 224,000.

Nick Slade with Qc Qd raises to 16,000 and gets called by both Ian Frazer with Ad Tc, and Josh Tyler with Kd 7d. The flop comes 8d Qs Ks. Slade bets 32,000.
Phil Hellmuth : “Now here is the test that I have been waiting to see. Tyler is sitting there with the king, he has top pair, and let’s see if he is able to get out of this hand cheap, because he should be able to…first of all I don’t like his call of a raise with K7 of diamonds, so that’s the first mistake he made.”
Tyler then reraises 75,000 more.
Hellmuth : “He’s overplayed so many hands…well this is the thing, now I know…I mean he’s willing to risk 100,000, look at this.”
Slade moves all in for another 76,000 and Tyler calls looking absolutely crestfallen. He knows he’s beat.
Hellmuth : “I mean Tyler…oh okay, look this is what I predicted in the first heat when he almost went broke with J9, is that he would go out early…well he didn’t want any tough situations. The first tough situation he ran into he virtually donked off all his chips.”
Jesse May : “What was the proper way to play the hand – fold before the flop?”
Hellmuth : Well of course. I mean fold before the flop. I mean he busted himself on this hand.”
Jesse May : He’s gonna kick himself there isn’t he?”
Hellmuth : “Well he knows he donked off the money.”

4 players limp in. Nick Slade with 7d Td. Obrestad with 8d 6d. Frazer with Jh Kc. Tyler with As 6h.
The flop comes 3s Th 7c. Slade checks. Obrestad bets 8000 and Slade just calls with 2 pair and the others fold.
Hellmuth : “She fell for it, oh my god…they’re using her aggression against her just beautifully.
Obrestad bets another 23,000 when the Qd appears on 4th.
Hellmuth : “Oh he’s played her beautifully.”
4h comes on the river. Slade bets 30,000.
Hellmuth : “Oh he’s played her like a fiddle on this hand.”
Obrestad reraises to 80,000 and Slade calls.
Hellmuth : “Now that’s what happens when you play super aggressively and everyone knows you’re playing super aggressively. He checked to let her bluff off her money – she did. He checked, then he put a little floater bet out there where she’s gonna have to raise it if she believes he’s weak, and then he picked off that 50,000. That’s what you do against a super aggressive player, you use their aggression against them. You limp in with big hands, you let them bluff bluff bluff bluff, and then you put a little floater bet out there.

Obrestad with Ac Jc raises and gets called by Slade with Kd Ts. The flop comes 5h Kh Tc. Slade has hit 2 pair. It goes check check. The As arrives on 4th meaning Obrestad has hit her ace. Slade bets 10,000 into a 27,000 pot. Obrestad just calls. 8c is the river card and it looks like Obrestad could be gone. Slade bets 30,000 but Obrestad folds.
Hellmuth : “Let’s give Annette some credit there. I mean she played that hand beautifully.”

Blinds are up to 3000/6000
Hellmuth is continuing his theme about aggressive players. Hellmuth : “Now that’s what I like to do… there’s so many new aggressive internet players who show up to the World Series every year and I just love to keep checking to them, and it’s amazing they keep firing and firing.
Jesse May : “The check and call has gone from being the most passive strategy to one of the most effective.”
Hellmuth : “I have been using it only because every one else is so crazy.”

Obrestad makes a small raise with Ad 7d and Slade calls in the blind with 7s 6c. Flop is 5s 2c 5c. It goes check check. Jc on 4th. Slade bets 14,000. This is the first time he has tried to bluff her. She calls. 3d comes on the river and Slade bets once again with nothing. His 50,000 is virtually all her remaining chips.
Hellmuth : “If she makes the call I’ll be impressed.”
Obrestad calls with ace high and takes down a pot of 161,000.
Hellmuth : “Look at this girl, because she hasn’t shown me that much in the days that I’ve watched her…I mean it was just a beautiful call and it was a beautiful bet on his part because he smelled that she had ace high, and it was just a beautifully played hand by both of them.”

I’m talking live poker here incidentally. If you play only internet then fine, but I am talking live poker, because that’s what I know about. If you find enough idiots to go in as huge underdog against you, then you are going to be in pretty good shape. It doesn’t matter about your mindset, your lucky charms, or whether you are feeling positive or negative. Once the cards are shuffled, what is going to come out on the flop is already set. Nothing is going to change that. May as well pray to some tooth fairy, or whatever god you believe in. That isn’t going to change things either. If there is a god, I somehow think they are going to be too busy to come down and change the cards personally for you. You know, even if I believed in something like that, I wouldn’t want that happening anyway. Just as Samantha’s husband in Bewitched would realise, it sort of defeats the object of the game. The object of the game is to earn money by outplaying and out thinking your opponent. If you do this in the long run it is inevitable that you will win. Satisfaction comes from that. Confidence comes from that, real confidence, not some crap bravado of a kid who thinks all you have to do is bet bet bet continually with the dog hand, and think they’re going to win because this makes them great players.

You will find confidence because you go in continually with the best hand, this then leads to a positive mindset, which in turn means you will play better poker. It all stems from playing good or great poker. If you continually go in with the best hand, you are outplaying your opponent. I’m not someone who believes in calling a big raise with 2nd rate cards (8-7 suited and their like), because you think you can outplay your opponent. If you are calling a big raise with these sort of hands, he has already outplayed you.

If you’re the sort of person who likes to jump up and down, whoop and holler, scream your head off while running around the room, every time you hit your hand against the odds, I would ask “why?” You just got outplayed. You just went in with all your chips as massive underdog and sucked out. These are the actions of a losing player, not something to shout about. Why be happy? In the long run you will lose a lot of money. If you’re good enough to be playing the game for a long time, and only go in as underdog occasionally, then don’t celebrate too much when you suck out. In the time you are playing you will put some hideously bad beats on people, and also have them put on you. Anything you do to someone will eventually be done to you. Anything truly awful and outrageous that happens in your favour, will at some time in the future, work against you in exactly the same way. It’s the Instant Karma of poker. This is another thing that is inevitable.

Yes, some pros do dance around the room, cheer, and throw their arms up in the air when they put a suckout on someone. It may be in a big tourney, and the moment may get to them. Generally the class ones don’t act like this, but some do. If you are a very good player and choose to do this because it is part of your personality, then no one can stop you. I have given my reasons why I hate it, but some can’t stop themselves. Some like to rub the other players’ noses in it. If this is your style, then you better be prepared to take it as well, because take it you will. I have always believed if you are a class player, then act like one. If you’re a second rate player like me, then at least you can act like a class player, even if you don’t play like one. If you try to play the game to the best of your ability, and act accordingly, I do think this helps you to improve. I prefer this to acting like a jerk and playing for the suckout.

But if you do like to play the game as bingo, and like to throw all your chips in as undedog, in the hope of getting lucky because it’s your only chance, then I would understand why you would run around the room, cheering like a moron. You have played the game like a lottery, and have got lucky. So here I would understand that sort of behaviour. Once again it’s about your mindset. For me it’s the difference between players who like to play class poker, winning through better play, and those who just want to get lucky on a long shot. I’m not saying don’t enjoy your winning hands and winning situations. It’s just a case of endeavouring to play enough class poker, so that it is inevitable you will win in the long run.

A couple of years ago Kenna James was commentating on one of those tv tournaments. I thoroughly enjoyed his comments. He is a player who has been through it all, and come out the other side. He has experience, respect for the game, and respect for the other players. I remember one of his comments, which I am going to have to paraphrase here, because I cannot remember the comment exactly. A player had just won a big pot with KTo. “When you start playing poker you can make tons of money with KT. Then you start to realise how bad a hand it is. After this you can never make money with it ever again!” That is pretty close to what he said, and I think we know what he means here.

I love that comment. It comes from a player who knows what he’s talking about. Young and inexperienced players can be fearless, to the point of stupidity. It’s okay being fearless, as long as you have a respect for the game and what your opponent can have, relative to your own hand. I think a basic knowledge of the odds will always go towards setting the foundation of a winning game. I think it is so important to be aware of the possibilites of what your opponent can have, and a knowledge of the odds will enable you to make a better judgement on the possibilities. You don’t have to know the odds exactly, just the basics will do. If you don’t know some of these you may be surprised.

For instance, the reason I hate a rag ace is because of the high likelihood of someone else at the table having an ace too. Some people can make loads of money with those rag aces. They then lose it all, and more besides on those very same rag aces. It’s an horrendous hand, especially in a slow blind tourney. If you can get in cheap or raise with it first in then okay. If you raise with A6 you may even (and should) fold out hands like A9 or A8. If you’re at a full table there is a better than 60 per cent chance that someone else also has an ace. If there are 8 players at the table, the chance that another player has an ace is 63.57%. If there are 9 players the chance is 69.47%. If there are 10 players the chance is 74.69%. Incidentally, the chances of someone having that ace if you don’t have one do not change as much as maybe you would think. If you don’t have an ace the chances of someone having an ace at an 8 handed table is 74.42%. At a 9 handed table it is 79.86%. At a 10 handed table it is 84.39%. I have always hated rag aces. These figures show you why.

There are some interesting comparisons too. I don’t know about you, but it always seems that if I start with 2 suited cards I hit that flush draw an awful lot more than I hit trips on the flop, starting with a pair. But no – the chances are 15-2 of either of these events happening. If you really want to split hairs the exact chances for the flush draw hitting on the flop are 7.48-1, whereas the chances of hitting a set are 7.51-1. But for all intents and purposes they are the same.

Suited connectors and connectors are some of those problem hands that can cause you all sorts of trouble. You are much more likely to hit part of this hand than full on. If you are against a pair and insist on playing your hand out when you partially hit, there is a very good chance you will go broke. If you think you have seen players hit trips, 2 pair and the flush straight away on the flop, you have probably been watching too much tv poker. They edit down hours of play to get to those big moments. Chances of you hitting 2 pair on the flop starting with 2 different cards are 2%, or 49-1. Hitting the flush straight away on the first 3 cards of the flop is 118-1. Your chances of hitting one pair on the flop is 2-1, but you then only have a 20 per cent chance of hitting trips, or 2 pair on 4th and 5th. A good way to work out the percentage of improving after the flop is to work out your outs, then multiply them by the number of streets to come, then multiply by 2 for the percentage. (2.2 is probably more accurate but 2 is close enough.) So more simply multiply by 2 with one street to come and by 4 with 2 streets to come. This works for a number of outs like 5, but not quite as well for larger numbers of outs. With 5 outs it would work out as 5 times 2 times 2 for a percentage of 20. This is very close to the actual percentage of 20.3. Sometimes you hit your two pair and this makes the straight for someone else. Or you hit trips and someone else makes the full house. Some of these hands can not only have implied odds, they can have inverse implied odds.

I suppose you think you have seen runner runner tons of times. You probably have, but the real chances of this are far more remote than you think. If you start with 2 suited cards and end up with one of your suit on the flop, the chances of hitting runner runner are about 23-1. You work out the chances of one event after another by multiplying the fractions together. For instance, there are 2 cards in your hand, and 3 on the flop. That leaves 47 unknown cards. There are 10 cards left to hit for your flush. Hitting the first flush card on 4th is 10 out of 47. Hitting the flush on the river is therefore 9 out of 46. You multiply these together and it works out at 90 over 2162. This reduces to almost exactly 1 over 24. That is 23-1 for the runner runner flush. If you are all in and see your opponent’s cards and he doesn’t have one of your flush cards, this changes the odds to 90 over 1980. This works out at 1 over 22, or 21-1.

To hit runner runner in the sense of 2 perfect cards is even more unlikely but by no means impossible. I saw it happen on tv and the commentator said that the chances of this happening must be a million to one! They aren’t. I had AQ and raised from early position. I was reraised by a fast loose and aggressive older player. I reraised all in and was called. He turned over kings. The flop came K 6 6. I was getting ready for the rebuy, as this was a rebuy tourney, but then the dealer turned over 6 followed by another 6. This meant I won the hand as I had 4 sixes with an ace kicker to stuff his full house on the flop. All the money went in pre flop so it maybe wasn’t a genuine runner runner. But post flop after my opponent hits kings full, the odds of me hitting 6 followed by another 6, are 2 over 45, times 1 over 44. That works out at 2 over 1980 or 1 over 990. That means the odds are 989-1.

If you then look at the odds of runner runner as 21-1 or 23-1, and compare this to the odds of hitting your flush draw, starting with 2 suited cards you find those odds of 16-1 are not that far away from the runner runner possibility. Maybe I am being very negative, and playing unfairly with numbers here, but I just use this comparison to remember how unlikely it is to make your flush starting with 2 suited cards.

Sometimes you can come up with some scary stuff, or at least something that makes you realise how precarious tournament life is, if your chips go into the centre too often.  For instance An ace rag against a big ace is roughly a 30 per cent underdog, or 5-2. The same applies to a rag ace against a pair, which leaves your ace as the sole overcard. Going all in twice as a 30 per cent underdog means you are highly unlikely to survive. Your chances are 2 over 7, times 2 over 7, which works out at 4 over 49. This is a fraction more than 1 over 12, or 11-1 against. So that’s about a 92 per cent chance you’re toast. Even going in as 70 per cent favourite twice in a row means you are only 50 per cent to survive. This works out at 5 over 7 times 5 over 7, which is 25 over 49. Virtually 50-50.

You don’t have to know all these exactly. I certainly don’t, nor do the top pros. But you have to have some idea of the math, because without this you do not have all the information you need in order to make correct decisions at the table.

As the latest employee of the wonderful and totally fair “MugabePoker.com” it has come to my attention that some people actually think that online poker may be rigged in some way. In fact some people have been very rude about the reputation of online poker, and especially the wonderful new poker site “MugabePoker.com.”

For anyone in doubt about the honesty and integrity of online, and especially the wonderful new site “MugabePoker.com” please take into consideration the following. First of all there are clearly 10 billion different ways for a flop to hit. The small fact that you see 4 flushes, 4 to a straight, and runner runner, or the river card hitting for the suckout, on 9 and three quarter billion of them is purely coincidental. This is merely a blip. In fact given the astronomically high proportion of hands played, it is mathematically certain you will see small blips like this. The fact that you do see these small blips is proof that online poker is absolutely staright and fair, without any question at all.

In fact I personally know several 18 year olds who have the experience equivalent to playing 250 years of live poker, after only playing 2 weeks online. Their veteran experience tells them that everything is fair, right, and proper regarding online poker. This proves that anyone who thinks online is rigged is just a loser like Daniel Negreanu.

In fact we here in Zimbabwe have just carried out a thorough investigation of the validity, integrity and honesty of online poker. We took a sample of all the people who think it is rigged, and boiled half of them in oil. The other half we shot, and not one of them stood up afterwards and said it was rigged. In fact after this thorough investigation, you will not now find one live person stand up and say online poker is rigged.

At all times we have the totally fair and independent “Corleone Enterprises” monitoring every online card that is dealt to ensure that everything is above board. To ensure that we have the very best independent arbitrators that money can buy, we actually put up millions of our own hard earned money to hire only the very best organisation there is, to monitor us and ensure fair play. You cannot get fairer than “Corleone,” a company so well known they made 3 films about them.

I sincerely hope this will put all of your worries to rest. I can say in all honesty that “MugabePoker.com” is so well loved, that out of all the people that have put money in it, not ONE has taken it out. I rest my case.